Real Estate Information

The local real estate market is constantly being analyzed by various industry specialists ranging from Realtors to Economists and even Government Agencies. The common thread is that there is a different opinion from each industry expert. Each is neither right, nor wrong.

So what do the "big wigs" in major federal positions have to say? Here's an excerpt of what a chief economist-to our friends down south, a Bank of Canada governor, and Housing Economist for CIBC have to say:

Dean Baker, Economist of the Washington-based Centre for Economic and Policy Research (one of the 1st economists to accurately predict America's housing meltdown) says he sees no reason why average home prices in Canada are about 50% higher than in the United States. 

He noted that average incomes in Canada are less than those in the U.S. and land values are not appreciably higher to justify Canada's price premium. He predicts a "house price collapse by 25-30% if interest rates rise by about two percentage points."

He goes on to say, "There's a lot of things that look ominous. Debt to income ratios in Canada are close to what they were in the U.S. at the peak of the bubble, so there could be some fallout".

Bank of Canada governor, Mark Carney, is questioning the quality of debt that Canadians and Americans carry. "Americans carry a lot of bad debt, where many homeowners were unable to withstand a price drop or higher mortgage payments". Carney has also repeatedly cautioned Canadians against taking on too much debt, given that mortgage rates will rise in the next few years.

Based on what Carney is saying, lower-income Canadians, those most vulnerable to rises in rates, will be affected the most. Current low mortgage rates are fuelling the market beyond fundamentals. 

Benjamin Tal, an economist who has written extensively on housing for CIBC, says there is a world of difference between the U.S. market and Canada. He points out that unlike the U.S, very few Canadians have less than 20% equity in their homes. By his calculation, homes in Canada are only about 10% overpriced.

So, here you have it! 3 experts with 3 different opinions. You can take these to heart, or take them with a grain of salt. Whichever you analyze it, keep on thing in mind...its all about timing.

Take a look at the illustration below:

The "Lucky Zone" is where you ultimately want to buy, just before the market begins its upswing. The opportunity for maximum profit.  

When buying in the "Safe Zone" your property will consistently appreciate & generate a decent return. 

The "Unlucky Zone"is where you try not to buy.  You'll have to sit and ride out the waves until the next pricing spike.

Here's some advice that I consistently give all my buyers: "If it's the perfect home, at a fair price, and within your budget...buy it!!! 

Stay tuned for more useful information and be sure to leave me your comments.

Remember, for all your buying and selling needs, call the local expert...Rob Cvitanovic (sit`an`oh`vik) at Keller Williams Realty West (250) 704-6970. You can always email me at:rob@robsoldit.com

The number of property sales throughout Greater Victoria slowed further in September, with September being the 6 consecutive month to realize a drop in sales.

A total of 395 properties sold in September through the Victoria Real Estate Board’s Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®), down from the 425 sales in August. There were 776 sales in September of last year.

September’s sales were well below traditional levels for the month, and the trend for the past six months is a strong indication of the downward pressures placed on the real estate market by the inception of the Harmonized Sales Tax (H.S.T) and the new mortgage qualification requirements implemented by the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). 

The average price for single-family homes sold in Greater Victoria last month was $599,825 up from $586,676 in August. The median price, however, declined to $531,000. The overall average price for condominiums was $295,463 last month, down from $320,874 in August. The median price for condominiums in September rose to $290,000. The average price of all townhomes sold last month rose to $439,040 from $432,284 in August. The median price rose to $425,633. 

The number of properties available for sale at the end of last month declined slightly to 4,323 but this was still 26 per cent higher compared to the 3,419 available properties in September of last year.

MLS® sales last month included 228 single family homes, 100 condominiums, 36 townhomes and 13 manufactured homes.

Here is a Year to Date break down of the overall sale in the Greater Victoria real estate market:

Jan    Feb    Mar    Apr    May    Jun    July   Aug    Sep

386    621   789    707    695    625    527   425    395

Whether you're buying or selling, you owe it to yourself to have the right information to make the right decisions...call the local market economists The Victoria Home Team for all your real estate needs! (250) 595-3200

Market Activity as of 8:30 am on Sept. 20 2010:

Please Note

• Left Column: stats so far this month
• Right Column: stats for the entire month from last year

Just one look at the most recent stats for the month of September and you'll notice that it truly is a Buyers Market here in Greater Victoria.

Increased inventory, fewer sales, combined with historically low interest rates, and low levels of unemployment... what does all this mean to buyers thinking of purchasing in Victoria?

ACT NOW BEFORE THE PENT UP DEMAND FOR HOUSING EXPLODES!

We have seen this trend occur many times in the last 10 years. Buyers ready to buy, but holding off until the time is right.  7 times out of 10 these buyers have missed the mark because they waited too long to commit to buying a property.

As history has shown, real estate in Victoria has consistently rebounded from small blips in the market. Prices in some of the worst hit housing markets in the US have risen 25-50% in the last year.  1st time home buyers in America are jumping into the market knowing that prices have no where to go but up.

There are currently over 4200 listings on the market. How many of these sellers truly need to sell RIGHT NOW!  At least 15% of these sellers need their home sold today. Another 15% are serious about looking at reasonable offers, and would most likely bend if the terms were right. 10% of the selling market overpriced by 4-9%, while the remaining 60% will most likely never sell.

So why not concentrate on seeing the top 15% of the listings in your price range, and focus on negotiating a deal suitable to your budget.

Call us today for your FREE, NO OBLIGATION Buyers Consultation. We will get you the most home for the least amount of money...Guaranteed!

Call Rob or Dave at the Victoria Home Team (250) 595-3200

The Greater Victoria real estate market has softened in the month of August as a result of fewer sales & a decline in overall prices for single family homes and condominiums. However, the overall prices for townhomes rose in August.

A total of 425 properties sold in August via the Victoria Real Estate Board’s MLS, slightly down from the 527 sales in July. In comparison, there were 764 sales for the month of August in 2009. Softening of the sales this year was not unexpected, given that 2009 was an exceptional year. 

The outlook for the remainder of the year is that we anticipate the market to remain relatively stable; as any increase in interest rates in the near future will likely be modest.

The number of properties available for sale at the end of last month declined to 4,356 but this was still 24 per cent higher compared to the 3,509 available properties in August of last year.

The average price for single-family homes sold in Greater Victoria last month was $586,676 down from $615,004 in July. The median price declined to $548,500. The six-month average declined slightly to $629,272. There were eight single family home sales of over $1 million in August compared to 16 such sales the previous month. The overall average price for condominiums was $320,874 last month, down from $322,905 in July. The average for the last six months was $330,234. The median price for condominiums in August declined to $275,000. The average price of all townhomes sold last month, however, rose to $432,284 from $420,578 in July. The median price rose to $405,000. The six month average was $439,636.

MLS® sales last month included 223 single family homes, 113 condominiums, 43 townhomes and 15 manufactured homes.

Greater Victoria home buyers have a growing number of properties from which to choose, as inventory levels rose to 4,477 properties available for sale at the end of June - up 23 percent from the 3,632 available properties a year earlier.

For the 2nd consecutive month sales have softened while overall prices showed little change.

Here are the July month-end market statistics posted as of Aug. 02, 2010  9:20am:

Please Note

• Left Column: stats for the entire month from this year
• Right Column: stats for the entire month from last year

I have been fortunate to have lived in this wonderful place for nearly 30 years, and I clearly remember falling in love with Victoria on our very first trip to the capital city back in 1978. 

Through my travels, many people have told me that they have heard about Victoria, and wish to visit it one day. Many, that I come across have been to Victoria, and absolutely love it.

Take a look at this great video about Victoria and some of the great things to do while here. We are truly blessed to be living in paradise.

If you would like to make the island home, let us know and we can make your dreams come true.

The Victoria Home Team

The continuing trend in Victoria this summer is a cooling in the number of homes sold. The Month-to-Date Market Statistics as of 8:00 am Monday, July 19, 2010 are as follows:

Please Note

• Left Column: stats so far this month
• Right Column: stats for the entire month from last year

Month-to-Date Market Statistics from July 1 - July 12 2010:

Please Note

• Left Column: stats so far this month
• Right Column: stats for the entire month from last year